A little late with this week’s open thread, but here it is. The TX-23 run-off brings this cycle’s elections to a close. Then we’re on to 2007-08. Speaking of which, Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS), who is pushing 70, is considering retirement according to this report at fellow SoapBlox site BlueSunbelt. Interesting. Very interesting.
38 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
Comments are closed.
I promised myself that I would not think about another race until this one was over. If we lose TX-23 on Tuesday, then I’ll start thinking about how to win it in 2008 … muttering names like Pete Gallego and Carlos Uresti. I have been obsessed with this district for a long time.
Honestly, though I have also done some number crunching on a local state senate district in Texas, because I think we can flip it.
Sorry for being such a local yokel, but you know what the say about acting local.
I think we need to take these two in ’08. As I have stated previously, there is no excuse for the Democratic party not holding every senate seat in the northeast! Tom Allen is a great candidate for Maine; who do we have for NH? Jeanne Shaheen might be old news, so we need someone who can decisively beat Sununu.
I’m anxious to rid New England its last Republican. Chris Shays should be beaten and I’m tired of having my home district be the last one to get with the program of the New England Democratic wave.
Unfortunately I don’t know who the answer is. I’m fairly certain Lamont won’t run, though I’ve heard his campaign chair (and former CT Democratic Party chair) George Jepsen talked about as a possible candidate. Farrell should not be given another chance.
The biggest problem I see is that Shays has near total name recognition in the district, while pretty much any challenger will be either a mayor or state legislator with little to no name recognition district wide.
Considering Shays flip-flopping on his Iraq stance, an Iraq vet could be a very powerful challenger.
These are both districts that we need to target. AL-03 was drawn to elect a populist Democrat and we need to get a real candidate to run here. I think we could win this with a good, populist Democrat.
AZ-01 is one that we need to look at again as well. We need to start looking at candidates now.
We also need to target OH-01, OH-15, CT-04, CO-04, KY-02, FL-13, NY-03, NY-25, NY-29, PA-06, PA-15, NM-01, and NC-08. I think we could also win TX-32 with the right candidate. TX-32 is the one district that Bush didn’t win huge in that is still represented by a Republican.
Of course, we also need to get all of our freshmen reelected.
The person who wrote the article about Mississippi’s upcoming state elections in ’07 & Sen. Cochran’s seat in ’08 must have gotten some misinformation.
(a) The current Republican governor is going to be a strong force to be dealt with on the campaign trail. In the article, it was written that the likeable former governor, Ray Mabus, would be a strong contender. Granted he will have African-American & labor support, he was one of the most arrogant governors Mississippi ever elected. In 1991 there were more “Anybody but Mabus” votes than there were for Republican Kirk Fordice, who won the race. While Captain Kirk was wrong a lot of times of the issues, but John Q. Public knew exactly where he stood, and this was such a breath of fresh air when compared to Mabus, who governed by polls and wouldn’t take a stand on controversial issues. Ray was anything but likeable.
(b) It is conceivable that former Governor and Lt. Governor Ronnie Musgrove could make a comeback in the Lt. Governor’s race, which is an open seat. But the writer must not know of Ronnie’s divorce (and the reason for his divorce) while he was governor. In the last few months this issue indirectly came up in headlines about inappropriate conduct in a business situation that was in litigation. Because he is now a private citizen, the situation should not have made the papers, but this will no doubt come up again on the campaign trail. Also, Ronnie is politically savvy enough NOT to associate himself with “Save us from” Ray Mabus campaign.
(c) As far as former Attorney General Mike Moore ability to defeat Trent Lott-no way (and I lived in the state 40+ years before moving to the West Coast and I never voted for Trent, so I am not bias toward Trent). Trent and the Senior Senator, Republican Thad Cochran, are Senators for Life, barring photos with farm animals. However, Mike will be a strong candidate if Thad decides to step down. But one thing about Mississippi, it likes new faces. Mike was AG for 16 years and he is now considered the “old guard.”
My observations for the what it’s worth department. While it is “just my opinion,” my spin is a lot closer to reality than the author of the article.
Tim Wahlberg barley won agianst a nobody who spent no money. He’s definitely going to have a tough 08′ primary that he’ll probably have to spend all his money just to win narrowly. He’s like the new hostettler, except his district at 54% pro-bush in 2004, is nowhere near as conservative as Hostettler’s. I heard the Democratic Minority Leader in the State Senate’s district is located entirely within this district, he should run. If he did it’d be a sure fire win.
I’d rather see us try to consolidate control of the New York Congressional delegation and flip a U S Senate seat or two than resume the search in districts like KY-02 or KY-04 for a democrat so conservative that Republicans might be willing to vote for ’em. We might also want to keep an eye on districts where the demographic is shifting, either with growing Hispanic communities or with educated urbanites moving into adjacent exurbs.
I think Al Wynn had better really trim his sails in the 110th, if he wants to stave off another primary challenge.
I think we had better resolve to expend a lot of time, money, and energy protecting Jerry McNerney’s new seat, and a few of like character.
I spot four state legislative chambers where a single seat gain would flip control. And two others where we need to pad a one-vote margin with a spare, or, as the Brits say, an heir and a spare, to avoid disaster.
Lastly, there are a few goodies that go on the table in 2007. A couple of governorships, and the state legislatures in two or three states. Ernie Fletcher is indeed going to run again – put a little lipstick on that pig, and he can stand in for the Kentucky version of Katherine Harris. We can beat him, with the right candidate, and set the stage for reminding Kentucky voters that there are two parties fielding candidates they could vote for, if they wish.
A Brad Ellsworth/Heath Shuler style Dem could win here.
Dems: AL-03, AZ-01, CA-04, CO-04, CT-04, FL-08, FL-13 (If the effort here fails), ID-01, IL-06, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, KY-02, MI-07, MI-09, MN-06, NV-02, NV-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NY-03, NY-13, NY-25, NY-26, NY-29, NC-08, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, PA-03 PA-06, PA-15, TX-23 (If Today doesn’t go so well though I have faith), VA-02, VA-10, VA-11, WA-08, WY=AL.
Reps: AZ-05, CA-11, CT-02, FL-16, FL-22, GA-08, GA-12, IL-08, IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, IA-03, KS-02, KY-03, MN-01, NH-01, NH-02, NY-19, NY-20, NC-11, OH-18, PA-04, PA-08, PA-10, TX-22, WI-08,
I don’t see how the current Republican party could get back any of these seats that I listed. They all lean heavily Democraitc, with the exception of NY-20, which is trending Democratic and Gillibrand is terrific. I think that what happened in the northeast this year is pretty much comparable to what happened to the Democrats in Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma in 1994 and 1996. We should be able to keep everything that we gained in PA, NY, NC, IA, CO, MN, NH, and CT as these are all trending Democratic.
Bud-1, your observations are yours, just as mine were solely mine. I chose to emphasize the positive while you bring out the negative. You state yours are more realistic.
However, let me point out a few facts.
1.) ELECTIONS are not people. They have way shorter memories. While there may be anger from one election cycle, I feel safe in saying an election cycle seventeen years ago will not be as predominant seventeen years later. If that is so, then I guess that means David Duke (who in 1991 was seen as a much more viable and strong candidate) is just as potent a force today, right? WRONG.
Also, Ray Mabus is looking at a comeback and as my link noted from someone ON THE GROUND, its very clear he is thinking of a comeback bid.
2.) Yes I know of Musgrove’s divorce and why. Maybe know a lot more personally than you’d realize. However, Musgrove is still a potent force and would be a front runner should he run again. Look to Jim Folsom, Jr. for someone who lost and made his comeback, as many other Southern Democrats have done, regardless of scandal.
3.) The Moore Senate candidacy is based on the presumption that Cochran will retire.
will premier/play at 9pm PDT/EDT (tonight) on the Discovery Times Channel:
Massa, Murphy-PA,Duckworth,Bolanos,Horne are featured.
OMG, Sen Tim Johnson suffered a stroke today. If it is worst case senario and he passes Republican Governor Mike Rounds will replace him giving the Senate back to the Republicans.
This is SO depressing.
walja
If a Republican can win a district as Democratic as CT-02, then the Dems should have no trouble winning districts like OK-04, AL-03, KY-01, KY-02, or KY-04. They are all just as Republican as CT-02 is Democratic.
Nancy Boyda.
I am glad to see Nancy Pelosi working to buttress Boyda’s re-election chances right from the start of the term. Boyda was placed on the Armed Services Committee. Given three of Kansas’ four military bases are in KS-2, it is important to connect Nancy to the constituency because the GOP is going to hit her with everything they have in 2008.
Representative Tim Murphy is under investigation by the FBI for using paid congressional staffers to conduct campaign business. His re-election margin was 57.8 – 42.2 so he is not one of those intrenched incumbents it would take dynamite to remove from the House.
More Republican ethical difficulties should make this seat winnable if we get a competent opponent to face him in 2008.
Here is the link to the story:
http://kdka.com/loca…